Economic conditions are deteriorating quickly with the Covid-19 outbreak causing a sharp drop in economic activity. Hotels are experiencing a significant contraction to demand. Our current expectations are that as early as Q3 2020, activity will begin to stabilize, and a recovery is expected to be underway by Q4.
CBRE Hotels Research has released a preliminary 2020 forecast that analyzes the impact of the pandemic on hotel performance and provides insight as to how hotels may start to recover in the back half of the year.
- CBRE expects GDP growth will decline by 4% in 2020.
- U.S. RevPAR will decline by 46%, with a contraction of almost 80% in Q2.
- Occupancy will decline by 36%; ADRs are expected to decline 16% in 2020.
- The most complex constraint impairing travel comes from social distancing efforts and travel or group gathering restrictions on global populations.
- Properties that primarily cater to discretionary travel will be affected most, i.e. luxury, upper upscale, urban, airport, and resort properties.